Agents are full of S**T -- Redux

Yesterday (see below) I put out some stats on Orders of Notice in my corner of the world, YTD versus last year for the same period. They painted a grim picture "malgre" the rosy smiles of the "housewife home hucksters" who daily run about hawking homes whilst "habidashing" about the kitchen curtains.

I was asked by many for some support of the numbers as they were from "only a small sample" of towns.

Herewith, I pick Suffolk County -- That is BOSTON, REVERE, CHELSEA, WINTHROP. Here goes...

1/1/10 to 3/18/10 560 Orders of Notice.
1/1/09 to 3/18/09 194 Orders of Notice.

As far as Middlesex South goes...

1/1/10 to 3/18/10 745 Orders of Notice
1/1/09 to 3/18/09 202 Orders of Notice

'nuf said?

Agents are Full of S**T

Here in my corner of the world, the next time your bubbly agent tells you how great things are in the world and how that world will only be greater for you if you buy this home "TODAY!!!!!!", ask that agent of yours about "ORDERS of NOTICE". Now, mind you, they probably do not know what those things are. My advice in that situation is to get another agent, FAST! Just call me, actually.

That is an order of notice over yonder the right there. Not a pretty thing I would hazard (privacy information has been blocked out), AND, it gets uglier as one learns about them.

Herewith is a small primer on what we will now abbreviate as OON:

An OON may be considered an solid indicator of foreclosures coming up. It is a required document filed at the Registry of Deeds that notified folks that their lender is going to foreclose on them. The OON is required because any person in the military can seek relief under the Service members Civil Relief Act (one rightly cannot foreclose on a bloke shooting down some scum bucket who wants to do harm to Americans).

An now, hers are some stats to ponder.

Looking at this year to date (1/1 - 3/18) there have been in "my" areas (Belmont, Arlington, Watertown and Medford) 66 OON's plopped in mailboxes of sinking homeowners; 37 of those are in Medford, by the way.

In the same period last year, there were 14!...Yes only 14 (11 in Medford).

That is a big clunk. When one thinks of all the foreclosures that have been laid to rest, and these numbers coming up that ARE NOT in the stats,...well conjecture is worth a few moments when next we "latte at Starbucks".

What does this mean? Well, we will expand our stat collection and see if the patterns are "All over the board". Then, we will be better able to discern if your happy agent is full of S**T, or completely down and out of the crapper already.

"Ducking" the Weather

There are ducks swimming in my backyard...not in the little pond at the northwest corner, but in the yard where, at about this time every year, I begin the annual toil of planting happy grass and expunging, well, crab grass. Not today.

It appears the water table has risen above the banks of the pond, and the pond has made ownership of a substantial swath of the yard. I noticed a fish in a place that would normally make it a "fish out of water". I had hoped the little adventurer wold submarine itself back to the deeper climes of the pond, but sadly, that did not happen;...an aquatic squirrel tip-toed through the shallows and made a "canape" of the "carp."

Many open houses on this Sunday just gone were "called on account of rain." Brokers, deciding to put valor in the "bottom drawer", felt it best to "close for the day" rather than have to explain to a doubting public that the "wet basement is ONLY during unusual rains" such as these. I kept my open house going: I had not problem facing up to the sceptics about the seepage...no problem because NO ONE came.

The high school is closed today. Flooding. A few other communities are suffering the same fate. Not the flooding but having teenagers with a day off and nothing to do. I suspect the "little darlings" will spend it nursing cheap beer out of paper bags behind the Dunkin Donuts on Trapelo Road, or behind the library if the babbling brook there has not overflowed its banks. The town will fairly glow with beer cans reflecting in headlights by tonight.

I'll be out showing some properties. Let's take advantage of all this. How much off the list price can we get for a sopping basement? Time will tell....

So that's the way things are in my corner of the world in these rain swept times. Time to put on the flippers and check my own basement.

Sellin' the "Crib" for a new career

The caricature to the left is of the Salwens; Mr. and daughter Kevin and Hannah. It appears on page 23 of the March 15, 2010 of the New Yorker. The Salwens for those who have not heard are, now (at least for this week), writers with a successful book, and wanderlusts on a successful book tour bringing in the dough. Their book, The Power of Half details their story and subsequent "journey" spiritual journey, that is (oh brother!), not the book tour pay per speech journery tour that brought them to New York recently from their backwater hovel in Atlanta (actually it was an $800,000 home with an elevator, YES an elevator but why haggle).

Your see, the Selwens have this precocious (some would say obnoxious)daughter (that would be Hannah), now 15 or so, who, in 2006 as the family stopped at a red light, saw two men: a homeless rummy to the left and a rich folkster in a Mercedes to the right. She posited that if the guy to the right in the German car did not have such a good car (read that as not all the money he had), the rummy to the left would be able to have a meal (read that as government hand-out).

Ahhh, says the moron father...yes, but but but, and the kid says NO BUTS WE NEED TO GIVE IT ALL AWAY so that the rummies of the world can get to Burger King STAT! The father should have cut it off right there telling the kid she has no business suggesting the dispersal of HIS hard earned samoleons. Ditto, the father should have cut it off right there by telling the brat that, perhaps, the guy to the left (rummy) should ask the guy to the right for a job, and that what the kid is proposing is communism -- from each accrding to his abilites to each according to his needs. But Karl Marx NEVER did put together a best seller on that score (and it appears the Salwens have; see Barnes and Noble), but that is getting ahead of our opus.

To make that long story short, the Salwens SOLD their home for $800k, elevator and all, and gave half dough away to some seed eaters in Ghana (what ever happened to that Atlanta rummy right around the corner from them?).

And now, they are on the book tour.

We posit a few points here:

At first I was pondering saying what a true moron the guy is, but hey, the guy's got quite a financial head on his shoulders. Wealth is all fluid -- Look at it this way...he sells the ranch for a good a good bowl of rice, puts on the sneakers and runs for the hills. That's one way around the housing crisis.

But even better, he invests HALF of what he sells by dumping it off to some cuckholds out of the country (out of the country because inside the U.S.A. we could actually see how useless it is to give money to porch-sitters). I say "invests", because he writes the book about the experience and now he's rolling in the dough from Amazon, B&N, and all other sorts of cash registers, doing the tours, doing voice books and becoming a celebrity of the benificent type, just like that little girl who wrote a letter to Gorbachev in the 1980's (by the way, that kid died when she was about 13, I believe, in a private plane crash on way to a publicity event).

There is a moral to this story:

There are many folks who've come forward with interesting ways to sell a home and maximize profits in these hard times -- staging, loan take backs, point buy downs, rent-to-owns, who knows?..., but this guy wins the contest.

He sold his house for a best selling book writing career.

Bravo

Wheel Estate Redux

I have been driving a Yaris these days. It appears to be, at this point at least, the only car that has not been recalled by Toyota.

Perhaps my Yaris is truly a super car, but perhaps there are other reasons for no recall and herewith are but a few speculations:

There are but a handful on the road. The numbers sold are counted in tens of thousands, not in millions like the Corolla. Perhaps Toyota forgot to recall them.

I paid a mere 13k for the jalopy. I suppose, if there is something wrong with the chariot, just dump it out on Monday morning with the rest of the recycled cans and plastic (the Yaris, I have been told, is made of aluminum recycled cans).

And, perhaps, anyone riding around in a little car made from Dr. Pepper metal deserves to die, so no bother for a recall.

Yet, as I go off to present a property, I am confident that the brakes will work at 30 MPH and the car (unlike the Prius) will not get stuck at 90 miles per hour (I doubt my Yaris will crank out 60 MPH without the hubcaps falling off).

Now I know what you all are thinking. Does he not look like a fool driving up a sales meeting whilst driving a Tonka Toy?! Where is his sense of status, his sense of lording over the baffled customer; the shock and awe of a BMW?

Ahh, yes, I have addressed that. You see, in this age of less is more, or if not more than just the best we can do, I feel the BMW or any other Luxury car from one of the former AXIS countries bespeaks a pompous and out-of-touch message. Unemployment is rising and this chump is driving up in a Lexus -- a new one??? -- damn I'll be damned if I'll give that parasite a lick of business.

Ahhhhh, but as I drive up in the Yaris, clean and shiny humming of cheap gas consumption, I am ever asked, "What is that little thing?"

A Yaris, I posit. Gets me where I need to go fast, easy, and simple. I can park it in the smallest of wedges. I am in and out. And with my business booming right now, I need to move, and move fast. Now how about this home...let's take a look and see what it does for you, shall we?

Status symbols are everywhere --- just remember symbols say, hard workers DO.

Don't Cry for Me, Agent Tina.....

Yesterday, being Washington's birthday, I decided to plaster a bit of personal honesty on Facebook -- that rightly maligned piece of crap that the kids use to coordinate their drug deals all the while being watched by B&E folks looking for a sap to tell the world he is on vacation for the next 5 days...

My bit of honesty took the review tense. It noted that I HAD been gone for 9 days. It opined that "nobody" noticed.

Today, as I check emails, messages, calls, letters, carrier pigeon guano, and all other manner of communication avenues, it is clear that my "nobody" opinion was a tad off the mark.

Herewith are a few comments that came by the assorted info-hiway splatters:

"Are you dead?!?!...I heard so, call me if you are not."

"Hey baby, you lookin' for a good time in Woburn?" (Emailer had the a wrong addy -- that's what happens when you drink mercury instead of margaritas.)

"Hey, it's me...call me, ok uhhh, I was wondering about that house." (Who are you?)

"Hey, it's me...did I just call you or did I dial wrong? OK so either way, call me."

"I'd like to order a..." (We cut that one off right there.)

"Msng U in Woburn. (What's going on up there.)

"OMFG whre hv U gone?" (Joltin' Joe has left and gone away)

"I was wondering if I can set up an appt to meet with yu and see if you think I can sell my house in Belmont" (I actually responded to that one while I was in Southern Climes)

"Viagra Cheap!" (I don't want the Viagra to be cheap...I want the DATE to be cheap!)

"Hi this is Tina from XXXXXX Realty, I mean Betty, Bettina, Elizabeth, Liza...god so like I can get so many names out of Elizabeth, and I forgot which one YOU call me, so call me." (For the record, I call her "BETH"!!!!!!!)

I guess I was missed after all...

Con-DUMB-iniums Redux

Thought I would repeat these words of wisdom scribed long ago. It seems some in Belmont have not learned the lessons. Read on....


Condominiums have been around for years, and they have played a vital role in the housing, well being and financial dealing of folks all around the country. My own forey in Condo land began and ended happily. I have nothing but fond memories of that little slice of heaven (very little -- 330 sq ft.) I called home in the North End of Boston.

But there has been, in the last ten years, a newer trend in Condo conversions: the two-family conversion. This ditty, while it has all the wrappings of the 10, 20 or larger editions of the product, is unique in that -- well it is 2 units. I have seen documents put togther by quick sell 2 family owners that leave much to the imagination. Lots of questions, lots of fights.

You see, good readers, the larger condo associations operate like little city states. The citizens of Athens get together and Aristotle tells everyone that the building needs painting. Plato says something about the paint has to come from the stars, and Socrates is just trying to get everyone to vote before he has to limp off and take poison. They vote and they do -- or don't paint.

The 2-fam condo is more like a marriage. Ponder it: the two parties live in the same structure, have the usual domestic quarrels, deal with the breakdowns and leaks, squabble and spat over who should do what and, in general, are on their own in the cold cruel world. Yessir, a lot like a marriage, except you probably will never get a chance to see the other party in the arrangement naked.

Come to think of it, the 2-fam condo is more like an ARRANGED marriage; the papers are passed the money flows. Then you meet the other party (where, at least in the arranged marriage, you WILL get to see the other half naked).

But, few and far between are the arranged betrothals these days, and I should hazard that 2 Fam unions should be entered into with all the sanctity of an espousal made in heaven, not "Vegas".

So herewith, a few observational pointers for any dear readers who may be pondering "getting down on one knee" with Offers to Purchase in Hand:

1. Meet the other owner -- If this is "not possible", then run...put yourself back into the dating scene. Buyers who like a home will spend time cruising around the neighborhood, getting a feel for the whole environment and its people. Why not do the same thing for "the people" living under the same roof as you?
2. Know the structure. -- Everything should have accommodations. Firm up the holes over how things are paid. No round to-its, -- as in "I'll get around to it". Cut those schedules into stone and stick to them.
3. Know your electrical lines, especially in the basement. Know your water lines, especially in the basement.
4. Let the other party know when you are doing work on your part of the plantation. Even if it is simply painting, let them know. Smells permeate. If it is piping, wiring or any sort of invasive improvement, make sure all work channels through common wall space. If you plan to sand your floors this Tuesday, first make sure that the better half in the bottom unit did not just get off the Swing Shift at Raytheon.
5. After having sanded those hardwood floors, do not take up tap dancing.
6. If it does turn out that your marriage is not one of heaven and you falter in the above or any other areas, keep my number, (617) 470.8085, close by. I have lots of intimate "singles" waiting when you and the other half bust up. You may not get a chance to see anybody naked, but at least you will be able to leave your dirty laundry in the basement.

The Land that Time Forgot -- Waltham Real Estate Review for 2009

Did you get the pun up there in the title? The play on words? Time? Waltham? Waltham Clocks. Get it?...Ahhh never mind.

Be that as it may, Waltham was certainly the "land that time forgot". Did the economy over the last few years forget to give the kaibash to Waltham? It would seem so.

In 2009, 236 singles went to the "deed shop". That is a dip from 2008's 265, but the average price of those 2009 homes banged out to $412,000 versus 2008's uhhh, $412,000 -- the same "nada" difference. Also days on market changed but a wisp of a hair in the windmills of time: 82 days for 2009 against 85 days for 2008.

It appears Steady Eddie lives in Waltham. I doubt there will be much change in the new year. Based on these numbers we can predict how the market will be. So accurate -- you can set your watch on it.

The Good, the Bad and the Arlington (MA) Sales review

With the hour glass fairly tinkling the last sands of 2009 away, we can report that there were 141 single family homes sold in Arlington in the year (a few more may pop in). Average price was $495,000. This sets out at about 9 grand below asking (call it 2%. This compares out quite well to 2008 where the average price was $483,000 (12k less than '09) for the 115 homes that changed hands. Prices were UP and unit count was UP -- a lot up on the unit count; 22% up on the count, in fact

To the casual observer, it may not seem like there was ssoooooo much action. Casual observers judge action by signs -- how any signs are up and how many come down. I do look at this with a small calculation that I call "signs days". It is a bench mark that takes the number of sales in the year and multiplies it by the days the sign was up from beginning to listing until the day the home went sold. For 2008 those 115 sales took an average of 60 days to sell -- that works out to (115*60) 6900 sign days. For 2009, the 141 sales averaged on market for a speedy minimal 48 days or 6758 sign days. The Casual "looker" did not see any difference in the signs posted on the by-ways of Arlington, hence, a splendid home market has not been made public -- except to we few proud and happy Realtors marching through Arlington.

Don't Turn on the "Waterworks" for Watertown

Don't cry for me Watertown...so the Watertown agents should say.

In 2009 (so far...a few more may slip in), 78 single family homes were sold. This compares slightly to the good to 2008 when 75 "castles" changed hands. Not only that, these castles traded out faster than in 2008. It took 60 days for the lord of the Watertown manors to divest in 2009. In 2008 the lords and ladies had to wait 82 days for their vassals (agents) to get the job done.

As far as pricing goes,...it was a tad to the bleak, nothing like the Black Death of 1348, of course but average prices were a dip from $463,428 in 2008 to $455,707 in "09". $8,000 for a drop is nothing when compared to the whopping of a whack taken in Belmont where (as noted yesterday), the average palace got "pillaged" for about $70,000.

We may have assumed that demand for homes in Watertown has to have been buffeted by the $8,000 tax credit to first time buyers, but that does not seem to have been the case. 30 of the homes sold for under $400,000 in 2009. A look at 2008 shows that 32 homes sold for under $400,000 when the tax credit programs first went into action. In 2007, a scant 25 out of 93 homes sold were in that price range (average sale price $484,424 in 2007). The "stats" do not fully define the issue.

It may well be, after all is said and done, education: seeing prices not dropping from 2008 to 2009 brought the skittish buyers out and days-on-market times shortened. But who knows for sure?...no one...not even Santa.