The Race is ON in Somerville

Can you believe it?...2 weeks left and we are DONE with the first quarter of 2011. How time flies -- seems like only last year I was sniffing mimeograph paper and discovering the joys of watching Valerie Werner smooth out her "Bobbie Brooks" (but that is another story).

At any rate, at the risk of jumping the gun, I feel it is time to begin the look see at how Real Estate is holding up in my corner of the world, and today we will start off with Somerville and its agents as they race to the 1st quarter finish line.

So far this year, according to MLS, 64 properties have had the "T's" crossed and the "i's" dotted on the bottom line (6 singles, 35 condos, 23 multi-fams) -- SO FAR, we say. In the first quarter of last year (the full quarter) 107 properties did the ol' fliperino. Doesn't look good does it? But wait...

Digging a little deeper finds us a few nuggets of hope; we see (through the fog) 33 properties are Under Agreement and are scheduled to close by 3/31/11. According to these projections, the first quarter of 2011 in Somerville will close out with 98 transactions, about an 8% drop. That is nothing to toot our horns about, but it is, likewise, no reason for Chicken Little to be running about saying the sky is falling. The "goodest news" (as my grandmother used to day when she worked at the First National [remember the FN?...remember the JUMBO for that matter?]) -- the goodest news is in Condo sales, where days on market have fallen from 2010's 123 days to 108 (so far) days in 2011.

No real bad news here. The "baddest" we can find is that agents may well have to ride the Lexus about for another season before trading up to the Beemer.

Belmont (MA) Sales, where do we stand (most of us are sitting right now)

Ok so we are 69 days into the new year, and in Belmont 27 properties have changed hands. 10 Singles, 16 Condos, 1 Multi (no doubt soon to be 2 condos on the flip????).

As this time last year the local Registry of Deeds bagged fees on 28 transactions, so we are ONE behind last year, but it is the mix that tells the story:

10 Singles this year,...15 last year
16 Condos this year,....10 last year
(multis were 1 versus 3, but who's watching)

Condo sales are rockin'; aided by those big ol' luxury haciendas near the old Hospital...up about 100 grand over last year.

Singles have, however gone through the roof (so to speak) 2010's first 69 days saw an average sale price of $722...this year they whacked the checkbooks for 1.1 MILLION. A bit skewered by TWO sales that logged in at 2.4 and 2.8 million. Without those two "big dogs", we'd be sitting not nearly so pretty counting treats that averaged about one thousand bills over 2010's level.

So that's where we stand, (or sit, or crawl) as we try to get 2011 off to a running start.

Cond-OH!!!-nos in Belmont Sales up in 2011 so far...

Surprise, surprise... Belmont, the town that boasts itself as "THE TOWN OF HOMES", saw some "non-home action"! While the single home situation languishes in what folks say is the snow storm malaise (4 sales for January and February -- the worst ever), condominium sales in Belmont had their best year EVER in transactions as well as average price (aided by 2 big gun "Mitt Romney type" townhomes in the Woodlands)!

15 Condos had the ol' master deed docs and 6D's done over for new owners in January and February of 2011. That "one-ups" the previous best (2006) by ONE. Average price? 537k; taking out 2007's previously "Ruthian" tab of 512k. It took agents 108 days to get the job done; you have to go back to 2006 to find "better days" (2006 did it in an average of 97 days).

We can speculate on what this means for "The Town of Homes"; have we priced ourselves out of the market? or is Belmont going through the inevitable "Cambridgeification?...or perhaps is it what I call the "Condo-many-of-them Syndrome"...so many of them for sale.

A quick look at MLS shows us that as of this morning (3/3/11) there are 27 Single family homes for sale in Belmont: average offering price $1,076,000. And Condos?...well surprise, surprise there is a neat bookend of ALSO 27 condos for sale (average offer price $521k). One would think all is parity, but let us dig a tad deeper:

In the last 6 months, 5 single family home listings went EXPIRED -- read that as failed to sell during contract time. 21 condos struck out in that same period of time. It seems there is a "Shadow Market in Condos". Lots of folks want to sell 'em but they know there is no one to buy 'em. It is sort of like all those souls who have just given up on looking for a job and, as such, are NO LONGER counted in unemployment stats.

The crux of the problem may well go back to the craze that took off around 2004 when lots of 2 families were bought up and converted to condos: I call that the era of Con-DUMB-iniums and have written about it in these pages (search under the "Condominium Category" to the right, and you will find it). These condo buyers were newbies in a new strange land -- a "Town of Townhouses" (really flats that echo with he footfalls of the upstairs neighbor), and now they want out -- but they can't get out. And we are not even talking about the "under water owners".

What does this all mean? Who knows (again), but maybe agents should put on their urban thinking caps and start talking about Belmont as a "City of Apartment Dwellers" instead of a Town of Homes. It may well add up to a few more paychecks

Watertown Home Sales for 2011 so far so good...

Yesterday, we looked at Belmont and saw that the first 2 months of the year saw a mere 4 new homeowners hanging out the Welcome signs. It has been speculated that the poor showing is related to the storms that have tortured the minds and frozen the pocketbooks of buyers. Today however, we look at Watertown and see a different story.

For the first 2 months of 2011, Watertown has 8 closings; sure that is down from the 10 consummated deals in 2010 but right in line with recent history -- stormy weather notwithstanding. Going back to 2005, we see first two month sales being at a low of 6 and a high of 12. Average days on market, by the way were a stealthy 69. Average price?... they were skewered to the high side by the very unusual home on Garfield that sold for $1,250,000 (a palace for sure -- you can buy 3 homes in Watertown for that). Be that as it may, the so called Belmont SNOW DAZE, does not appear to have been seen in Watertown...who knows maybe it is the weather...after all Watertown IS south of Belmont, right?

Belmont (MA) Sales (or no sales) review YTD 2011

Yeah, we got one more day to go, and I'll be waiting with baited (or holding until I turn blue) breath to see the numbers from the last 6 hours of February 2011 Deed recordings, but as of now, the numbers are in and they are, uhhh, well little numbers:

In Belmont, 4 homes were sold in the first 2 months of 2011. The good news here is that you can cut off your thumb and still use your left hand for the arithmetic (not good news). Days on market? It took agents 107 days to get the job done (about a week longer than it took them to do it in 2010 [101]).

The four homes sold went for an average of (let's see, add the pinky to the ring finger, the pointer and the no-no middle digit, divide by the life line and you get...) $724,000. That is a drop of 50 Grand from the sales in the same period as last year (where, by the way, 11 homes had the locks changed).

So let us see: it took longer to sell...they did not sell as many...they dumped 'em for a 6.5% drop below 2010's sales.

A lot of agents are talking about the snow: is it true or is it snow job aimed at blinding all of us to the real storm on the horizon? I went back 15 years and looked at sales for the same period. We've had some pretty nice winters in the last 15 years -- we've had some pretty crappy ones too. In the same two month period, 2009 comes in at 9 sales. Other than that, going back to 1996, sales for the 2 month period have been between a low of ten (in 2001), and a high of 24 (1999). Three times, sales hit 17; four times they came in at 14; twice at 16; twice at 18. FOUR SALES IN THE PERIOD IS DISMAL, plain and simple.

It's the weather we are being told. No one wants to buy; no one wants to sell; there's ice on the roads. Never mind that folks are more petrified for their livelihoods -- that the slippery roads are no match for New Englanders, but the slippery economic road we all may be taking may well be a journey too daunting. Never mind... we have our cheerful eternal optimist agent telling us all is well.

" 's no tellin' (get it? snow...'s no) telling what will happen next, but one thing is for certain -- we all need to get out the shovels. One way or the other we will be shovelling -- either snow or optimistic B.S., who's to say?

Ghost Writing on the Wall

She comes to me and says, "I am interested in a home that is haunted."

I mishear -- I think she says something about hunting as in a hunting lodge.

Oh, heavens no,no,no she disputes, "NO I said haunted as in ghosts."

Now folks, I do not believe in ghosts. I also do NOT believe in Democrats in the White House, but they ARE there for the moment, so maybe just maybe there are ghosts.

"Sadly," I say, "when I search for ghosts, it does not come up on MLS."

"Oh, dearie", she laughs, "of course they won't come up. They are ghosts, they hide. We won't know until we get into the home. I'll feel them."

"Why," I foolishly ask (never ask a question unless you already know they answer!), "why do you needs ghosts?"

"Well, I am single, "she says, "and I am afraid to be alone at night. The ghosts will keep me company." Crissakes, I think to myself: I am in Great Expectations showing property to Miss Haversham...where's Estella when you need her (she was the Hot One!)...just my luck.

We head to one wreck in Billerica. What luck! She hears sound from above -- an "otherworldly presence coming down." Turns out it was squirrels in the attic.

We go to a dump in Burlington: sadly she prefers her ghosts to be Kosher -- I AM not MAKING THIS UP! (do ghosts eat?).

At the third home she looks at me and says, "I should have known you'd bring me to a place like this. Looks like something out of the Vampire Diaries! I knew it would come to this."

"Say wha'?", I stammer.

"Well look at you," she posits, "those sunk in cheeks, you are rail thin and youthful yet have the wear of the ages in your face, those eyes; big round, dark that seem to want to fly out of your head..." [note to myself -- oh brother, get me "outta" here!] "...Yes, you have the look of a benevolent vampire about you. NO no no...I want ghosts, not vampires to share my life."

Well folks, no sale, but I have to look at the bright side. I have a first time buyer who's not scared! I sent her to Bank of America for her preapproval -- if that don't scare her, nothing will!

Un-Staging

Everybody knows about staging. Okay, so maybe a few of you good folks do not, so by way of quick explanation, "Staging" is a concept wherein a seller prepares the home for sale by doing cockamamie things that the "home stagers" tell you will sell your home FASTFASTFAST.

Now, folks, you and I know that so nobody is fooled by some bric-a-brac bought at the local Homegoods store, or candles burning in the alcove. We ALL know that in order to sell a home FASTFASTFAST, you have to price it RIGHTRIGHTRIGHT.

I have never been one for staging. It all looks so phony to me. I walk into a "staged" home and I think of Ikea; I smell the scented candles and I want to sneeze at best (at worst, I want to look behind the fridge for the mildew).

No folks, I do not like staging, but that does not mean I am in favor of UN-STAGING...

UN-Staging is a concept I developed. I tell my clients that we must make sure not to unstage and they ask, "What, perchance is that?"

Un-staging is what I call the act of NOT doing those things that will turn off a buyer or, at best, mitigate against a favorable offer. Herewith is a list of UN-Staging items -- things we should not do:

Do not leave the foreclosure notice on the dining room table -- No one is going to up their offer for your home if they know you are in hock up to your hams. Likewise the overdue bills.

Do not show off your pets -- Fido suffers from "bad breath in dog's mouth", sorry to tell you that (you smell just like him after all these years of letting him sit in your lap). No one thinks your dog is cute. As soon as I see a free range dog, I begin to wonder where is the wee-wee stain from those paper training days.

Cats -- forget it, lock 'em up. Every five minutes they are hurling a hair ball; the litter box stinks and the food on the floor is gross.

Hubby -- if the man of the house uses male enhancement, for goodness sakes, hide the bottle; do not leave it on the dresser. We ALL know what goes on in the bedroom, and we may even go to a movie and watch Sasha Gray do it in mind boggling concatenations of styling, but we DO NOT want to think about YOU doing it. While you are at it,...change the bedsheets.

We have all been told that cooking makes a buyer feel all warm and fuzzy, but DO NOT leave the stew on the stove during a showing. The whole recipe is going to boil down to a tarry mass while you are gone and the house will stink like burnt rubber.

I love fireplaces, but do NOT leave 'em going when I show up with a prospective buyer. The only message that can come of this is, "What kind of a moron lives here who would light a fireplace and leave?"

Do not put the dirty diapers into the diaper bin -- they still stink! You just can't smell it anymore. Put the whole bin outside. While you are at it, take down some of Junior's picture. Too many pictures makes the house look too well lived in.

Don't use the basement for storage! If "ya got" clutter, rent a place. Boxes piled high just look like you are hiding something.

Hide the magazine collections. We are all very impressed knowing you read the New Yorker...this week's issue is just fine, but we DON'T need to see them going back to 1965.

Don't leave 3 weeks of leftovers in the fridge. It smells, and at any rate, the fridge may well be part of the offer. Even if it is not, the buyers are going to open it.

Do you really need to leave that box of Trojan's in the medicine cabinet? Do you really need to leave the "Girls Gone Wild" DVDs on the night rest? If you do, at least leave a copy of Citizen Kane there.

DO NOT vacuum TOMORROW! Do it today.

Do not soak the dishes.

Do NOT smoke...EVER. In fact, stop smoking TEN YEARS before you decide to sell. That is how long the nicotine is going to take to dry out of your wall board.

Don't leave fancy chocolates around...good ol' Hershey works just fine. I mean, it might not have an impact on selling the home but, well, what I mean is...I like Hershey...

A Friend in Need Should NOT Be a Friend (IN)Deed

She comes to me and says, "We were together for 5 years. It seemed only natural."

My friend here (ALL my friends are women), was showing me shapshots of the renovated kitchen in the condo she bought "yonder" about 8 years ago. "I mean," she postured, "We did so much work on the place, together, and he seemed to be the perfect guy!"

Now, folks, those of you who know me, can well attest that I work magic on women -- I make 'em disappear! I bring this up to point out that IF I knew what was the perfect man, I would have fashioned myself to be one long ago....So I asked her, "Perfect? How so."

"Well, single, never married, no kids, fortyish, living with his mother..." I lose it there...Any woman who thinks a forty-year-old living with is mother is perfect, well...'nuf said on that!

"So," she continues, "it was only natural. It seemed so normal to do it....And then I find out -- he's been in so many affairs that he should be a caterer! And he comes to me and tells me he's got some girl pregnant and, get this...he wonders if maybe it might be best if WE raise the child as OUR own!" And off she goes to Sobbingland.

"Well throw Old Lochinvar out, for crissake," I say.

"But I can't."

"Listen, honey," I move in for the heart-to-heart, "this is no time to play the conscience, the guy's a bum with a wet wick..."

"No it is not that," she cries, "we were an 'US'; a together, a 'WE'...so last year, I put his name on the deed. I can't throw him out; he owns the place too!" (And now even I'M crying!) "Yes, last year, while he was shakin' and bakin' in Miss GirlScoutCookie's oven, I was off at the lawyer changing the ownership of this place from a 'ME' to a 'WE'. On our 'quote' anniversary, 'unquote', I showed it to him. So Ya see, I can't throw him out, no more than he can throw me out! And he can bring his damn cupcake in with him, I suppose and we can all do a 3-some, or maybe THEY do a 2-some while I burp the baby." And inconsolable tears aplenty pour forth.

Readers, when words fail me (and they DO NOT FAIL very often), I think of cleavage, and here, words failed me... For a few short moments, I thought about how my friend would look in a shred of lingerie from the Frederick's of Hollywood collection (this situation was WELL beyond Victoria's Secret stuttering!).

"Uhhh, yeah," I say, my "unShakesperean moment continuing, "Uhh ya," and I say the only thing I can say, "Call your attorney."

Who knows, maybe it all can be undone. Maybe there is something in deceitful intent...but one thing is for certain -- don't make a friend, indeed, a friend IN DEED.

If it Sounds Too Good to be True, it is Probably a (NEW) Agent Talking

She's showing the listing of mine in Arlington. I'm there to make sure the dog does not bite. She's this cute little kitten of an agent holding out her shiny new business card, and showing me her license (still warm from the presses).

Her customer asks, "Where is the property line", and the sprightly, energetic young lass replies, "Over there...see the fence?" and she prances across the yard all the while talking about the shrubbery and other flotsam of greenery this "yard" will fairly produce under the pressure of a will green thumb.

I, of course, am not thinking green: I am turning red. As her customers plot and plan their futures in a tad of privacy under the canopy of a catalpa tree, I whisk the young agent over to an opposite corner, and as delicately as possible ask her, "Are you friggin' crazy or just stupid?" (OK I did not say "friggin'")

"What?" she asks.

"You," I say, "just told your customer where the property line is? How do you know? How do you know that the fence is not misplaced, or recessed or EVEN meant to be on the property line of THIS property or the neighbor's."

"Well," she says, rather non-plussed, "CAVEAT EMPTOR! -- Buyer beware!" and she jingle jangles off to show them the inside of the home with the new windows and new what nots (note to readers -- is something "NEW" if it is one month old? 1 year old? who is to say what is new?)

Ya see folks, here in my little corner of the world, there is NO SUCH THING AS CAVEAT EMPTOR -- BUYER BEWARE!!!!!!! No such thing, no such thing! We have, instead, 93A -- the Consumer Protection Act (MGL Chapter 93A).

93A protects consumers from, well... being misled and harmed by statements from those who are professionals in their fields. In other words it gives the inexperienced consumer protection from being rough-shod by some hi-falutin' wheeler dealer, right?

Right, but it DOES more: it "imposes responsibility for false statements made in good faith. The broker can obtain no refuge from liability because of the statement being made in good faith on her part" (from Grynowicki v. Silvia, 1994 Mass App 173).

Despite the new agent's best intentions and good faith, she runs afoul of consumer protection laws and risks heavy damages assessed --- and she DOES NOT EVEN KNOW IT!

So what to do? I took her buyers aside, and told them that the fence may or may not be the line. I told them we do not have a survey, and the owners of the home do not have a survey. The only way to be sure is with a survey. In other words I saved her (nicely sculpted at SuperFitness) BUTT!

So remember, buyers do not have to "beware" -- they do not even have to be AWARE! They just have to mention 93A!.

Order of Notice Review 2010

For those folks who do not know what is an "Order of Notice", let us move into the magical land of make believe: let us imagine this scenerio:

Scene 1, Take 1: Owner opens letter on the table. Perplexed by the big words, and stymied by the reference to military personnel, the owner puts down the letter, picks it up, reads it again.
Scene 2, Take 1: Owner divides the big words in the calligraphy on the page and realizes that this letter is notice that their "banker" intends to begin foreclosure proceedings. The letter in hand is serving notice that if the owner is active in the military service of his/her country, he/she should so make written notice to that effect...and so our story goes.

The "OON" is a good indicator on foreclosures. In Belmont, 12 neighbors got the OON in 2010. That is an imporvement of the 17 who got the riot act put on them on 2009. Sad, but a bucking of the trend as the chart below of surrounding towns details:


Waltham in 2010 104; in 2009 73
Lexington in 2010 20; in 2009 16
Arlington in 2010 38; in 2009 13
Medford in 2010 119; in 2009 111
Watertown in 2010 38; in 2009 38

This may well look like good news for Belmont, but silver linings, DO, in fact cover the storms. It may well be that so many of our homes were bought at such infalted prices, that banks DO NOT WANT TO FORECLOSE. Why foreclose on an unsellable property; why pick up ownership and have to pay those taxes? Better to let the defaulting owner dangle in the breeze (or hurricane).

Not too funny, but then, it isn't supposed to be.