The Race is ON in Somerville

Can you believe it?...2 weeks left and we are DONE with the first quarter of 2011. How time flies -- seems like only last year I was sniffing mimeograph paper and discovering the joys of watching Valerie Werner smooth out her "Bobbie Brooks" (but that is another story).

At any rate, at the risk of jumping the gun, I feel it is time to begin the look see at how Real Estate is holding up in my corner of the world, and today we will start off with Somerville and its agents as they race to the 1st quarter finish line.

So far this year, according to MLS, 64 properties have had the "T's" crossed and the "i's" dotted on the bottom line (6 singles, 35 condos, 23 multi-fams) -- SO FAR, we say. In the first quarter of last year (the full quarter) 107 properties did the ol' fliperino. Doesn't look good does it? But wait...

Digging a little deeper finds us a few nuggets of hope; we see (through the fog) 33 properties are Under Agreement and are scheduled to close by 3/31/11. According to these projections, the first quarter of 2011 in Somerville will close out with 98 transactions, about an 8% drop. That is nothing to toot our horns about, but it is, likewise, no reason for Chicken Little to be running about saying the sky is falling. The "goodest news" (as my grandmother used to day when she worked at the First National [remember the FN?...remember the JUMBO for that matter?]) -- the goodest news is in Condo sales, where days on market have fallen from 2010's 123 days to 108 (so far) days in 2011.

No real bad news here. The "baddest" we can find is that agents may well have to ride the Lexus about for another season before trading up to the Beemer.

Belmont (MA) Sales, where do we stand (most of us are sitting right now)

Ok so we are 69 days into the new year, and in Belmont 27 properties have changed hands. 10 Singles, 16 Condos, 1 Multi (no doubt soon to be 2 condos on the flip????).

As this time last year the local Registry of Deeds bagged fees on 28 transactions, so we are ONE behind last year, but it is the mix that tells the story:

10 Singles this year,...15 last year
16 Condos this year,....10 last year
(multis were 1 versus 3, but who's watching)

Condo sales are rockin'; aided by those big ol' luxury haciendas near the old Hospital...up about 100 grand over last year.

Singles have, however gone through the roof (so to speak) 2010's first 69 days saw an average sale price of $722...this year they whacked the checkbooks for 1.1 MILLION. A bit skewered by TWO sales that logged in at 2.4 and 2.8 million. Without those two "big dogs", we'd be sitting not nearly so pretty counting treats that averaged about one thousand bills over 2010's level.

So that's where we stand, (or sit, or crawl) as we try to get 2011 off to a running start.

Cond-OH!!!-nos in Belmont Sales up in 2011 so far...

Surprise, surprise... Belmont, the town that boasts itself as "THE TOWN OF HOMES", saw some "non-home action"! While the single home situation languishes in what folks say is the snow storm malaise (4 sales for January and February -- the worst ever), condominium sales in Belmont had their best year EVER in transactions as well as average price (aided by 2 big gun "Mitt Romney type" townhomes in the Woodlands)!

15 Condos had the ol' master deed docs and 6D's done over for new owners in January and February of 2011. That "one-ups" the previous best (2006) by ONE. Average price? 537k; taking out 2007's previously "Ruthian" tab of 512k. It took agents 108 days to get the job done; you have to go back to 2006 to find "better days" (2006 did it in an average of 97 days).

We can speculate on what this means for "The Town of Homes"; have we priced ourselves out of the market? or is Belmont going through the inevitable "Cambridgeification?...or perhaps is it what I call the "Condo-many-of-them Syndrome"...so many of them for sale.

A quick look at MLS shows us that as of this morning (3/3/11) there are 27 Single family homes for sale in Belmont: average offering price $1,076,000. And Condos?...well surprise, surprise there is a neat bookend of ALSO 27 condos for sale (average offer price $521k). One would think all is parity, but let us dig a tad deeper:

In the last 6 months, 5 single family home listings went EXPIRED -- read that as failed to sell during contract time. 21 condos struck out in that same period of time. It seems there is a "Shadow Market in Condos". Lots of folks want to sell 'em but they know there is no one to buy 'em. It is sort of like all those souls who have just given up on looking for a job and, as such, are NO LONGER counted in unemployment stats.

The crux of the problem may well go back to the craze that took off around 2004 when lots of 2 families were bought up and converted to condos: I call that the era of Con-DUMB-iniums and have written about it in these pages (search under the "Condominium Category" to the right, and you will find it). These condo buyers were newbies in a new strange land -- a "Town of Townhouses" (really flats that echo with he footfalls of the upstairs neighbor), and now they want out -- but they can't get out. And we are not even talking about the "under water owners".

What does this all mean? Who knows (again), but maybe agents should put on their urban thinking caps and start talking about Belmont as a "City of Apartment Dwellers" instead of a Town of Homes. It may well add up to a few more paychecks

Watertown Home Sales for 2011 so far so good...

Yesterday, we looked at Belmont and saw that the first 2 months of the year saw a mere 4 new homeowners hanging out the Welcome signs. It has been speculated that the poor showing is related to the storms that have tortured the minds and frozen the pocketbooks of buyers. Today however, we look at Watertown and see a different story.

For the first 2 months of 2011, Watertown has 8 closings; sure that is down from the 10 consummated deals in 2010 but right in line with recent history -- stormy weather notwithstanding. Going back to 2005, we see first two month sales being at a low of 6 and a high of 12. Average days on market, by the way were a stealthy 69. Average price?... they were skewered to the high side by the very unusual home on Garfield that sold for $1,250,000 (a palace for sure -- you can buy 3 homes in Watertown for that). Be that as it may, the so called Belmont SNOW DAZE, does not appear to have been seen in Watertown...who knows maybe it is the weather...after all Watertown IS south of Belmont, right?