Flat lined in Belmont (MA)

At the risk of jumping the gun, what with 8 more business HOURS left to this pale of a year of 2011, we can report that sales in Belmont were flat compared to 2010. So far for 2011, 146 homes changed hands according to MLS. This compares out to 143 homes for the previous year. Flat yes, but to dig a bit deeper shows a bit of contour to the Real Estate terrain...

Days on market went form 78 days in 2010 down to a stealthy 58 in 2011. Average price rose from 780k to 804k. It would seem, from the numbers view at least, that we had somewhat of a bidding war on our little hands -- a little war, anyway. Buyers were there -- sellers were not...when someone did put the "chalet" on the market, it went.

Now let us not jump the gun in the other direction (read that as shoot ourselves in the foot -- or face). Buyers were not throwing themselves at anything and everything -- they were NOT willing to die by the sword if they failed to sign a Purchase and Sale. In fact, they kept their collective cool and allowed 42 listings to EXPIRE (no sale) in 2011. In 2010, they refused to ink deals on 35 homes.

What does it all mean -- not much, I should hazard. Flat sales in a bad market can be great, but it should be reminded at many times, flat surfaces are, indeed, as slippery as a slippery slope.

Open House???

It is an Open House...I am down in the basement with a rather attentive couple. They are asking this and they are asking that and I am smelling "Offer to Purchase". They head out the basement door to talk things over and I head back upstairs to attend to the footfalls of other prospective buyers. I hazard not more than a small glance at the old woman sitting serenly at the kitchen table. I do notice, however, that she has a bemused calm about her, as though the years between the gentile time of her day and the harsh electronic nonsense of today have filled her not with a sense of doom, but of blissful longing for a simpler time.

Great, I say to myself. Perchance she will have a good word with one of the other prospects -- the one with whom she came. She'll say something about how the house glistens with the charm of another time and she would happily bequest a chunk of her estate to the purchase of this property.

I spend a few minutes in this agent reverie, and even pass her again. I proffer her a smile and a "How you do?"

"Oh, fine," she says, "A cup of tea would be nice about now."

I smile and joke, "I'll see what I can do, but right now I MUST excuse myself to attend business."

"You're excused," she says.

A few moments pass, and, inexplicably, my Open House is empty. I catch my breath to prepare for another wave -- the final 15 minutes. I sigh and think about how hard we sales folk do work -- sometimes. I begin to expend air into another sigh, when that mournful moan is cut short by one from another set of vocal chords...coming from the KITCHEN.

It is the serene old lady. Sitting there, calm as ever.

"Is there something I can do for you?" I ask her.

"That cup of tea you mentioned would be nice."

"Are you with someone."

"Heaven's no. I walked here all alone. When will Ida be coming home?"

At this I quake, for there is no Ida in this house, and I duly report this to her.

"Oh!", she exclaims, "I must have walked into the wrong house!" and she gets up to head to the door rattling off a litany of apologies the length of which you would expect to hear from a "Perp" who just got nailed stealing the Police Commissioner's car.

I tell her it is all right. I close up the house. I offer her a ride. She accepts. My reveries of a fat commission check are put on hold, and as I drive her down the road, she breaks me from my dismal state when she asks, "Tell me young man, that Green place that is in the center of town, that Starbucks,...do you think they might have a cup of tea in there for me?...And you?

The Grass is Always "Greener" in the Kid's Room

Ok, so it is fall and we are not into thinking of grass but, it appears, there is more to grass than a trip to Home Depot

The other day, I take a fine cusotmer to a modest home that is, to say the least, not ready to be presented

Really not ready for showing: clothes strewn about, cereal in the sink -- 2 bedrooms that are not up to standards generally accepted today (I supposed one could sleep in a garage and call it a bedroom). I surely had nothing to say, yet the buyer persisted in the tour and went upstairs to said non standard bedrooms. As we entered the one on the left, the eyes of the buyer met mine -- both our noses twitched and, "Wow", said the buyer, "Bill Clinton must have slept here."

"Or," I replied, "at least he did NOT inhale here!"

"Good stuff," my buyer editorialized, "I wonder where the kid hides it."

We made no attempt to find the, uhh, shall we say "potpourri". Rather we exited the home and went our way. There are better homes in the town, you know...the greener grass thing -- especially because in this house, the grass gets smoked.

What to do with the underwater house...

...Do you have that lot in the swamp, that piece on the rocky slope that cannot be attained for six months during the ice season, that Condo converted from a 2-Family? Well, there is something you can do! We'll get to that in a moment, but first we must introduce our inspiration.

These folks at this link are marketing a fun and educational (don't you hate that phrase? I think they use it for Chia Pets!) way to own Real Estate. You can buy a postage stamp size plot of land, have the deed, title, porperty tax liens and the whole 9 yards in any and every state. Be a Donald Trump! So the web site screams. Loads of fun for the kiddies. I can just picture the young lads and lassies throwing out their XBoxes for the chance to stare at a property deed all day. Wow! This is more fun than having a star named after you! (Talk about money for nothing!) Oh yes, my brother paid to have a star named after me. Never could find its twinkles in the heavens...must have gotton sucked into the same black hole that took my "Bro's" cash. But back to real estate.

So if you do have that swamp to sell, that rock, that desert, New Orleans, whatever, subdvide into postage stamps and market it as an educational experience.

The kids'll hate you for being a nerd, but the lawyers will love you for life.

When they write X, they really mean Y

When they write -- they mean...

Old charmer - an old and ugly house
Stunning house - the house is not ugly
Tudor - two bedrooms are in the attic which is not insulated; very hot in summer and very cold in winter
Cape Cod - styled after Third World slum dwellings
Sunny corner lot - noisy intersection of two busy streets
Easy freeway access - noisy arterial street close to freeway
Low maintenance lot - no yard; the kids will have to play in the street
Meticulously maintained in the original condition - the appliances are 50 years old
Ready to remodel - the house is about to collapse; you will have to invest twice the asking price in remodel before you can move in
Newly remodeled kitchen - 50-year old cabinetry and faucets have been replaced with cheap modern equivalents
Ready to move in - the interior has been painted with one coat of cheap paint
Desirable neighborhood - this little house is extravagantly overpriced because the neighborhood has a snobbish reputation
1 car garage - you can drive your Ford Escort into the garage but there is no room to open the door
In-city living - it is not safe to walk in this neighborhood after dark
Recreation room with wet bar - basement has been painted and has a faucet
Large family room - large basement
Bedroom in basement - basement has a 1′ by 2′ window
Lots of storage space - basement too small to be called a family room
Partial mountain view - you can see the tip of Mt. Olympus if you climb the roof
Territorial view - good view of your neighbor’s bedroom window
Build sweat equity - the house is not inhabitable
Storybook - the house is old and the roof is not flat
Efficiently designed kitchen - the kitchen is too small to fit two people at the same time
Seasonal creek - muddy ditch across the property
Usable land - all the trees are gone.
Doll-house - tiny place filled with ugly knick-knacks.
Country living - too far from anywhere to drive to work
Country in the city - a grotesquely overpriced large lot with a 2 bedroom house built before World War I
Cozy - not a single room could fit a full size bed
Three season sunroom - a small addition the owner did not have enough money to insulate
Close to all amenities - the backyard is a shopping mall parking
Beachfront property, complete remodeling in 1996, a steal at this asking price - hurricane Andrew motivated the remodeling; no hurricane insurance available, at any price
Must see inside - the outside is ugly
Motivated sellers - subtract 15% from the asking price
Easy to heat - see “cozy”
Wildlife nearby - children and pets get ticks and fleas
Near transportation - Amtrak train goes through the backyard, every 15 minutes, day and night
Pet friendly neighborhood - organic matter constantly deposited in the front lawn
Neighborhood watch - your next door neighbor has binoculars trained on your house
Just available - previous owner just died on the premises, hope you don’t believe in ghosts

Location Location Location (or Strike 1, 2 3 "yer" out)

Up top there is the hackneyed expression, dare we say Mantra of real estate folk. I've never used it myself, for it smacks of late night Real Estate infomercials, but here below is a tale of a small broker who learned the lesson of "location,location,location" the hard way.

The small broker operates out of her house, does, maybe one buyer rep transaction a year, mostly cajoled out of her bridge club or soccer mom connections. A nice little business.

In this particular case, our broker harrangued a friend for weeks about listing a house. The friend had, in passing, mentioned that they were going to sell, and our little broker sprung into action.

Bought a listing post, had a sign printed up, figured out how to do the boston.com internet thing.

The friend had intended to go to a big office to list her home, but, well, our little broker offered a deep discount on the commission, and she got the listing.

Gave her husband the signage and told him to get a rubber hammer and bang that sucker into the front yard of the house.

And our little broker is ready! The phone rings within an hour and our little broker is set with her appointment book. She takes the call:

"How may I help you?" she asks.

"You're the one who needs help," a disturbed voice wreaks, "What the hell is that crap doing in my yard?"

"Pardon?" our now timid little broker replies.

"The 'For Sale' sign, you dope! What the hell is that doing in front of my house. I'm not selling my home. Your sign is up in front of the wrong house."

Now our little broker is a bit flustered, but the selling instinct kicks in -- never let a prospect go before YOU go for the sell. "Well, since it is up," she asks, "are you interested in talking about selling? I am sure the home is lovely and will..."

At which point she is met with a tirade of words not meant for "the King's English."

She is told her sign was, of late, posted on Xxxxx Place. It may be found in the trash of the subject house on Xxxxx Place. And, of course, her friend's home is on Xxxxx STREET! Location, Location, Location.

One wonders what the husband ate for breakfast that morning,...or for that matter, what he ate for dinner that night.

"Gang Busting" Agent is Just Gonna Get BUSTED

An acquaintance of mine brought to my attention an agent who is, I was assured, a powerhouse on the south shore, a veritable ball of energy and top producer:

“You know what her slogan is?” my compatriot opined.

“Nope,” I say with naught hint of slogan in mind.

“It is, get this…’I’LL SELL IT IN ONE DAY' ”, that’s what she tells people, and she is going gangbusters!”

“Wow I say,” and I am thinking – yikes! Is this agent stupid or what? Or maybe she does sell ‘em in 1 day, in which case she is not doing her clients any good, ‘cause to do that, ya gotta be dumping properties on the market, not pricing them properly!.

I looked at her “1 day” progress and it appears that the “gangs” she is busting are little gangs (I guess Hell’s Angels, the Tong, and the Winter Hill Boys are out of her market area). She has 3 listings – they are active; one has been active for 100 days. The ONE listing she HAS sold was on market for 164 DAYS (maybe she sells them in her dreams every night and does not remember to wake up!).

To her credit, she is party to another transaction – she was a buyer rep on a condo that was on market for 81 days. So … she has collected paychecks on TWO sales in the first 7 months of 2011 (2 condos; one for 200,000; the other for 329,000 – gang busters or ghost busters???).

But all this is not the issue: the issue that chokes me is that phrase “I'll sell it in ONE day.”

I asked my friend about that -- what if she does not off load in ONE day?: “Well,” I was told, “She says to them that she tried. She is working hard and it is not like she is doing anything wrong or illegal; she tried in good faith to do it.” And my heart goes BLIP!

I should suffer this agent to take a gander at Grynowski v Silvia, (1994 Mass. App. Div 173) before she goes around making “good faith” claims upon which she cannot deliver.

To quote Grynowski as it applies to Consumer Protection Laws here in Massachusetts, 93A (Consumer Protection Law) “imposes responsibility for false statements made in good faith. The broker [sic] can obtain no refuge from liability because of the statement being made innocently on her part.”

This little “gang buster” is attempting to induce sellers to list with her by using a bold and audacious claim. What happens when she does not deliver (and she has NEVER sold anything in 1 day)? What ancillary damages did her irresponsible slogan precipitate? What damage was caused to that owner whose condo languished on market for 164 days? These are great questions, and fairly well cover fiduciary responsibility, ethics and just plain common sense and honesty.

I am confident that NO agent or broker in my organization, COLDWELL BANKER, would spew out such a quantifier and then smile off the failure with an “I tried”. I am relieved that she and I do not share the same logo on our business cards.

And one thing is clear: she may be trying to go gangbusters, but if she keeps this chicanery up, she’s just going to get BUSTED.

Cutting the Numbers Down to Size 1st half year Belmont (MA)

As soon as all the brokers come back from vacation, there will be heard out of them such a whoop and holler in Belmont over the super duper sales numbers for the first half of 2011. According to MLS, the average price of a single family home that sold in the first half of 2011 ROSE about $130,000 over the $735,883 set in 2010 (for the same period). That ought to pay for a few “Cape Codders” on a Thursday night!…but hold it right there…

Those numbers, “ya see” were propelled through the roof by 4 sales of homes that clocked out at over $2 Million each – 2 of them for WELL over 2 Mil. In 2010, one home went for the milestone, barely reaching the bar and selling out at $2,001,000. Pull out those sales, and you have a very different story.

Looking at the mainstay of real estate, the 3 Bedroom home, we can get a clearer picture: in 2010, the average a sales price for 3 BR spreads was $658,110; in 2011, the average was $657,328 – down a tad and a different story from what the tabloids will tell you.

Aberration you say, perhaps (not!).

Looking at condos we see an even bigger spread. Average price for all condos ROSE from $469k in 2010 to $541k in 2011 (wow). Yet the skewers were there too, all over the new Cottage Area, where condos were selling to the Mitt Romneys of the world for $850k, $950k, even over 1 Million a pop.

Looking at the Belmont bread and butter condo – the 2 bedroom in a converted 2/3 family home, we hear a different tome: average price in the first 6 months 2010?…$326k; in 2011 it was down to $307k.

Not at all encouraging in view of the fact the 3BR single and the 2BR condo are the bastions of the first time buyer, and a first time buyer market is needed to propel a second time buyer market and the third time and so on. This may all trickle UP…and if it does, agents will be heading to the beer halls and bar rooms with a different reason for drinking.

Similar Sales are Somerville's Sales (MA) RE 1st half 2011

What we are trying to say with the tongue twister up top is that Somerville’s sales for the first half of 2011 exhibited a remarkable similarity to the same period in 2010. Starting with multi family properties, we count (according to MLS), 75 transactions in 2011. In 2010?…we count 75 transactions. Average days on market? 83 days…80 days for 2010. We may well speculate that the extra three days on market was the extra effort put out by our friendly real estate agents going the extra mile for their listing clients and negotiating ‘round the clock Friday through Sunday to get the average price up….(hey…stop laughing). At any rate, average price WAS up from a bit below $496k in 2010 to a whopping $531k in aught 11.

Singles? The 28 singles that sold did so in 71 days and allowed owners to cash out at an average of $457k. In 2010, the average was a tad over $453k. In the efforts of full disclosure, we should note that 39 homes cut the deed in the first six months of 2010.

Condos? well ever an interesting game. The similarity falls off in unit sales (157 for 2011 versus 211 for 2010), but that is offset by significantly higher prices -- $392k for 2011 up from 2010’s 369k. Average days on market grew from 78 to 88 (hard negotiating again?). Ya just can’t put a bead on condos – just like last year and the year before: maybe that is the best similarity of all.

No Big Splash for Watertown Real Estate Sales so far in 2011

Watertown buyers haven’t exactly made a big splash in real estate so far this year, but they haven’t exactly jumped a sinking ship either. Total numbers of units sold for the first 6months of 2011 were down compared to the same period in 2010, 159 for 2011 versus 174 for ’10, but the blame for the drop rests with the Condo “fleet”. In 2010, 114 new condo owners set sail on the rocky waves of ownership: in 2011, a mere 89 have tested the waters. Average price? Down in the shallows --- 4 grand less than 2010.

Single family sales were up in units sold and price. (42 for 2011, 33 in 2010; $475k vs. $472k on the average price front). And Multis?…up by one unit over 2010 to 28. Average price was up to $506k, an increase of $16,000 over 2010. The only problem with the Multi sales was that agents had to tread water for an average of 99 days before bringing the deal to safe harbor. It took a mere 30 days to do it in 2010.

There might be some smooth if not spectacular sailing ahead. Not much direction here, but if something need be taken away how about conjuring an image of the annoying agents who block the hydrant with her BMW NOSE DEEP TREADING WATER IN THE SALTY BRINE FOR 99 DAYS…works for me!

How is Real Estate Shakin' Down in Arlington MA so Far?

How's it shakin'? Well,...shake an apple tree and the apples fall down. You can say that, and that may well have a few of your local agents shaking in their boots, but hold on, take a breath -- innnnn, hold it:....outtttt. Now let us do some math...

Hmmm, carry the two add column one plus the seven and ah, -- according to MLS, that source of unyielding approbation amongst agents, total sales in Arlington fell (for the first 6 months of 2011) from 2010's 150 units down to 121: a drop of over 19 percent. Yet, lest we panic and jump out our windows, sniff some chocolate and bear with me:

Unit sales were down but prices were up: 69 singles swapped hands in 2010 (Jan-Jun) at an average price of $486k (give or take a few bucks). "Only" 56 "manses" blew out in the same period for 2011, but they did so for a whopping $562k -- over $75,000 more per home.

Condos you ask?. OK, I tell: 2010 saw 69 sets (yup, same number as single homes) of owners crossing pens at the closing tables. In 2011, a mere 60 condos swapped out. Average price in '10 was $397k; in '11 $379. A wee bit of motion sickness there, but let's not call TARP yet -- take a Pepto and call me in the morning...

Multis? Well, 12 in aught 10; a mere 5 in '11, with prices moving UP an average of EXACTLY $1,942 -- the number was so small, I "figgered" I had room to put it all in.

What can we make of all this? I "dunno", but it IS my turn to cook dinner tonight -- I'm suddenly in the mood for some "Shake-n-Bake".

Waltham gets "Clocked"

Right in the kisser -- that's where sales of took it in the first half of 2011. Looking at details out of MLS, we can count out 112 single homes that were thrown into the ring. This goes up against 134 homes for the same period in 2010 (Yur outta the weight class, baby!). Average sale price fell to $389k from 2010's 417k, and if that was not bad enough, sellers had to listen to their brokers whine for an average of 108 days: this compares to only 63 days of snivelling from brokers in 2010!

And the situation is the same for the "middleweight" class of ownership -- condos. 91 sold in 2011 down from 2010's 123. Average price?...310k in '11 and 382k in 2010. About the only thing going for condos were the days on market: agents toiled 69 days in '11 to sell the units. In 2010 they took 85.

Multis, in their small market showed a tad of promise. Average sale price up 7l to 462k, and the 23 sales topped 2010's 17.

It is too early to say Waltham is down for the count; premature to "throw in the towel" as they say. Aferall, there are 6 more rounds to go and the final story is yet to be told. To keep the boxing metaphor going, we shall ask: will it be "Cinderella Man" or will it be "Reqiem for a Heavyweight"?

F O R E !!!!!!! (closure)

Why, exactly do the pluggers yell, "FORE",before they hack the golf ball 30 yards into the zip code directly to the left?

I thought about this because, as our title intimates, foreclosures are, and have been on my mind lately. You see, there a foreclosure auction scheduled on the property next door to mine, and while in some climes, whole neighborhoods seem to be trending towards the "BIG F", in my corner of the world, it is as rare as a straight talking politician.

So "Fore" has been on my mind: Fore, as in beFORE, FOREfathers, FOREcastle, and so on and so on. You get the drift? "Fore" has something to do with "in fornt of" "ahead of" "the earlier in a sequence". So the golfer is yelling,. "Fore!", to tell everyone the sequence -- "I am going to hit the ball, then it is going to smash the windshield of that BMW yonder.

So, "Foreclosure" is saying (and this is being said by the "bank"). "We are going to do this," have an auction of YOUR home, "BEFORE we get closure to the promissory (Better to spell that 'I Promise I'm SORRY!') note you, the homeowner signed, with obviously your middle finger 'up-pointed' right at us."

Yup, that is what it is... a notification of a sequence of events...that is why they call it what they call it. Not that any of this matters to my neighbors...they are long gone: hightailed it back to the old country in the Pacific rim (stiffing the bank, the town the utilities, the newspaper boy and the guy who plowed out their driveway...).

Too bad, maybe the "bank" should have done something more proactive...maybe a "WayBeforeForeclosure".

Waltham's Studio Crossings a space for the art of the entrepreneur

Waltham's Studio Crossings a space for the art of the entrepreneur

Marching (or should we say "Juneing") Orders

Up top there we are talking about Orders, allright...Orders of Notice. For those not in the knowing, Orders of Notices are the little tidbits that come out of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts Land Court -- Department of Trial Court, and they say, blahblah blah, "has filed with said court a complaint for authority to foreclose said mortgage in the manner following: by entry and possession and exercise of power of sale..." or some other such similar alliterative nomenclature snaking across the page.

In Belmont, as of today (6/10/11), 8 property owners have gotton one of these notices in the mail in 2011. In all of 2010, 12 folks were blessed with the banking benediction.

A quick look about shows that these owners in 2011 are spread out throughout the town: from the Waltham border to Cambridge up to the Lexington line. From "high end" to modest. Singles and condos and multi's (...oh my!).

I cannot say how this will play out, but can't help but wonder -- if Belmont is seeing this, what is happening elsewhere -- stay tuned.

Belmont Brings it Home (in May at least)

Brokers have not been doing "mother's hours", in Belmont at least. With about a week left in the flower month, 21 deals have been put into the books. 16 singles sold after 55 days on the market, compared to 11 for the ENTIRE MONTH OF MAY, 2010. In that 2010 May, 11 homes sold for an average of $754k. This year, the average price is a whopping $866 according to MLS.

Condo sales are down (3 so far vs 9 for last year's entire May) but average price is up (thanks to an 830K sale in Governor Romney's neighborhood.

Multis?...well, 1 on 2010, 2 in 2011 -- not much of a trend there unless you are looking at the trend of turning 2 Fams into mini Condo Associations.

So what's the mood in little Belmont? Well, as of today there are 107 props being offered for sale. Of the 58 singles in that group, 12 are currently entertaining offers (per flagging in MLS). Average days on market for those 58 singles for sale comes out to 81 days (note -- the ones that sold did it in an average of 55.
days).

And average price on those props still on the inventory shelf?...$1,148,178 -- nearly $300,000 MORE than the sold properties.

Looks like things are selling, but if you want to sell it, "ya" better price it where people can afford it.

May Fall Ours in Arlington (MA)

Get it? May fall ours...May Flowers?...Oh well.

A look at last year in Arlington shows up 64 sales in the residential world. This year, with a week or so to go, we've got 19 -- that's quite a fall. Unless there is a big change in the weather in the next week (and there "may" be -- 64 props are under agreement ready to close), we are gonna see a fall in sales.

Not that the folks who popped off those sales are complaining (well, maybe they are). Average sales for singles are up -- 527k vs 495 for last year. Condos ditto: up about 4k from last year. Fewer days on market meant that agents had more time to shuffle around the aisles of the new MarketBasket just up the road (maybe they shouldn't be doing that...there's 160 properties for sale in town!)

We are used to propes popping off the shelves in Arlington. Looking at the singles on market, we see the AVERAGE home is now on market for 71 days and counting; the counting won't stop until the dotted lines are signed. The homes that have already sold did so in 48 days on average (my listing business banged out in 30, but that is just me...note to self -- big pat on the back is due).

So where do we stand in all this? Maybe we are standing at the peak, or most likely a very long plateau...one thing is certain -- the grass is going to need cutting no matter.

Is it April Showers (How's it selling in Belmont, MA?)

Ok, so we blamed the snow for the lousy sales in January, but as Granny used to say, "wassamaddanow?". Must be the April showers.

So far this month in Belmont, 25 days into it, 7 "happy homemakers" have put out the "Welcome Home" mat. Last year, for the first 25 days of April, 16 new owners began the weekend trips to Home Depot or Lowe's for the new owner what-nots. Of those 16 props in 2010, 11 were singles, and they popped out at an average of 755,000 bucks. 2011's edition has 4 singles selling at an average of 702k. I know that is not a very big sample, but that may well speak volumes in itself. But take heart, there might be some May flowers abloomin'...there ARE 29 properties Under Agreement.

It is cloudy and drizzly today. A good day for umbrellas -- and Gene Kelly.

First Quarter Real Estate "Round Down"

Get it? Round-up? ... "down"?... Never mind. The idea up there was a hint that first quarter 2011 sales were down in numbers of transactions in 2011 versus 2010...at least in the areas that I haunt.

Looking at the 3 Musketeers of residential RE (Singles, Condos and Multis), only Watertown improved over 2010 in the seven towns where I did some work. Belmont was down 2 (32 in 2011 versus 34 for 2010), Newton dropped 7 units from 2020's 122; Lexington sank to 58 from 2010's 62. Waltham got "clocked" (get it? Waltham Watch/Clock Company?) -- down to 78 sales from 2020's 93. Medford finished out the quarter at 79 sales (11 below 2010); Arlington ran out at 69; 8 shy of 2010's total. Only Watertown upped the ante: 61 sales for Q1 2011 UP from 2010's 52.

I wouldn't put too much stock into this, yet folks. Let's wait 'til we review the numbers and the mix -- then we can decide what to do with "all" our stock...Stay tuned.

The Race is ON in Somerville

Can you believe it?...2 weeks left and we are DONE with the first quarter of 2011. How time flies -- seems like only last year I was sniffing mimeograph paper and discovering the joys of watching Valerie Werner smooth out her "Bobbie Brooks" (but that is another story).

At any rate, at the risk of jumping the gun, I feel it is time to begin the look see at how Real Estate is holding up in my corner of the world, and today we will start off with Somerville and its agents as they race to the 1st quarter finish line.

So far this year, according to MLS, 64 properties have had the "T's" crossed and the "i's" dotted on the bottom line (6 singles, 35 condos, 23 multi-fams) -- SO FAR, we say. In the first quarter of last year (the full quarter) 107 properties did the ol' fliperino. Doesn't look good does it? But wait...

Digging a little deeper finds us a few nuggets of hope; we see (through the fog) 33 properties are Under Agreement and are scheduled to close by 3/31/11. According to these projections, the first quarter of 2011 in Somerville will close out with 98 transactions, about an 8% drop. That is nothing to toot our horns about, but it is, likewise, no reason for Chicken Little to be running about saying the sky is falling. The "goodest news" (as my grandmother used to day when she worked at the First National [remember the FN?...remember the JUMBO for that matter?]) -- the goodest news is in Condo sales, where days on market have fallen from 2010's 123 days to 108 (so far) days in 2011.

No real bad news here. The "baddest" we can find is that agents may well have to ride the Lexus about for another season before trading up to the Beemer.

Belmont (MA) Sales, where do we stand (most of us are sitting right now)

Ok so we are 69 days into the new year, and in Belmont 27 properties have changed hands. 10 Singles, 16 Condos, 1 Multi (no doubt soon to be 2 condos on the flip????).

As this time last year the local Registry of Deeds bagged fees on 28 transactions, so we are ONE behind last year, but it is the mix that tells the story:

10 Singles this year,...15 last year
16 Condos this year,....10 last year
(multis were 1 versus 3, but who's watching)

Condo sales are rockin'; aided by those big ol' luxury haciendas near the old Hospital...up about 100 grand over last year.

Singles have, however gone through the roof (so to speak) 2010's first 69 days saw an average sale price of $722...this year they whacked the checkbooks for 1.1 MILLION. A bit skewered by TWO sales that logged in at 2.4 and 2.8 million. Without those two "big dogs", we'd be sitting not nearly so pretty counting treats that averaged about one thousand bills over 2010's level.

So that's where we stand, (or sit, or crawl) as we try to get 2011 off to a running start.

Cond-OH!!!-nos in Belmont Sales up in 2011 so far...

Surprise, surprise... Belmont, the town that boasts itself as "THE TOWN OF HOMES", saw some "non-home action"! While the single home situation languishes in what folks say is the snow storm malaise (4 sales for January and February -- the worst ever), condominium sales in Belmont had their best year EVER in transactions as well as average price (aided by 2 big gun "Mitt Romney type" townhomes in the Woodlands)!

15 Condos had the ol' master deed docs and 6D's done over for new owners in January and February of 2011. That "one-ups" the previous best (2006) by ONE. Average price? 537k; taking out 2007's previously "Ruthian" tab of 512k. It took agents 108 days to get the job done; you have to go back to 2006 to find "better days" (2006 did it in an average of 97 days).

We can speculate on what this means for "The Town of Homes"; have we priced ourselves out of the market? or is Belmont going through the inevitable "Cambridgeification?...or perhaps is it what I call the "Condo-many-of-them Syndrome"...so many of them for sale.

A quick look at MLS shows us that as of this morning (3/3/11) there are 27 Single family homes for sale in Belmont: average offering price $1,076,000. And Condos?...well surprise, surprise there is a neat bookend of ALSO 27 condos for sale (average offer price $521k). One would think all is parity, but let us dig a tad deeper:

In the last 6 months, 5 single family home listings went EXPIRED -- read that as failed to sell during contract time. 21 condos struck out in that same period of time. It seems there is a "Shadow Market in Condos". Lots of folks want to sell 'em but they know there is no one to buy 'em. It is sort of like all those souls who have just given up on looking for a job and, as such, are NO LONGER counted in unemployment stats.

The crux of the problem may well go back to the craze that took off around 2004 when lots of 2 families were bought up and converted to condos: I call that the era of Con-DUMB-iniums and have written about it in these pages (search under the "Condominium Category" to the right, and you will find it). These condo buyers were newbies in a new strange land -- a "Town of Townhouses" (really flats that echo with he footfalls of the upstairs neighbor), and now they want out -- but they can't get out. And we are not even talking about the "under water owners".

What does this all mean? Who knows (again), but maybe agents should put on their urban thinking caps and start talking about Belmont as a "City of Apartment Dwellers" instead of a Town of Homes. It may well add up to a few more paychecks

Watertown Home Sales for 2011 so far so good...

Yesterday, we looked at Belmont and saw that the first 2 months of the year saw a mere 4 new homeowners hanging out the Welcome signs. It has been speculated that the poor showing is related to the storms that have tortured the minds and frozen the pocketbooks of buyers. Today however, we look at Watertown and see a different story.

For the first 2 months of 2011, Watertown has 8 closings; sure that is down from the 10 consummated deals in 2010 but right in line with recent history -- stormy weather notwithstanding. Going back to 2005, we see first two month sales being at a low of 6 and a high of 12. Average days on market, by the way were a stealthy 69. Average price?... they were skewered to the high side by the very unusual home on Garfield that sold for $1,250,000 (a palace for sure -- you can buy 3 homes in Watertown for that). Be that as it may, the so called Belmont SNOW DAZE, does not appear to have been seen in Watertown...who knows maybe it is the weather...after all Watertown IS south of Belmont, right?

Belmont (MA) Sales (or no sales) review YTD 2011

Yeah, we got one more day to go, and I'll be waiting with baited (or holding until I turn blue) breath to see the numbers from the last 6 hours of February 2011 Deed recordings, but as of now, the numbers are in and they are, uhhh, well little numbers:

In Belmont, 4 homes were sold in the first 2 months of 2011. The good news here is that you can cut off your thumb and still use your left hand for the arithmetic (not good news). Days on market? It took agents 107 days to get the job done (about a week longer than it took them to do it in 2010 [101]).

The four homes sold went for an average of (let's see, add the pinky to the ring finger, the pointer and the no-no middle digit, divide by the life line and you get...) $724,000. That is a drop of 50 Grand from the sales in the same period as last year (where, by the way, 11 homes had the locks changed).

So let us see: it took longer to sell...they did not sell as many...they dumped 'em for a 6.5% drop below 2010's sales.

A lot of agents are talking about the snow: is it true or is it snow job aimed at blinding all of us to the real storm on the horizon? I went back 15 years and looked at sales for the same period. We've had some pretty nice winters in the last 15 years -- we've had some pretty crappy ones too. In the same two month period, 2009 comes in at 9 sales. Other than that, going back to 1996, sales for the 2 month period have been between a low of ten (in 2001), and a high of 24 (1999). Three times, sales hit 17; four times they came in at 14; twice at 16; twice at 18. FOUR SALES IN THE PERIOD IS DISMAL, plain and simple.

It's the weather we are being told. No one wants to buy; no one wants to sell; there's ice on the roads. Never mind that folks are more petrified for their livelihoods -- that the slippery roads are no match for New Englanders, but the slippery economic road we all may be taking may well be a journey too daunting. Never mind... we have our cheerful eternal optimist agent telling us all is well.

" 's no tellin' (get it? snow...'s no) telling what will happen next, but one thing is for certain -- we all need to get out the shovels. One way or the other we will be shovelling -- either snow or optimistic B.S., who's to say?

Ghost Writing on the Wall

She comes to me and says, "I am interested in a home that is haunted."

I mishear -- I think she says something about hunting as in a hunting lodge.

Oh, heavens no,no,no she disputes, "NO I said haunted as in ghosts."

Now folks, I do not believe in ghosts. I also do NOT believe in Democrats in the White House, but they ARE there for the moment, so maybe just maybe there are ghosts.

"Sadly," I say, "when I search for ghosts, it does not come up on MLS."

"Oh, dearie", she laughs, "of course they won't come up. They are ghosts, they hide. We won't know until we get into the home. I'll feel them."

"Why," I foolishly ask (never ask a question unless you already know they answer!), "why do you needs ghosts?"

"Well, I am single, "she says, "and I am afraid to be alone at night. The ghosts will keep me company." Crissakes, I think to myself: I am in Great Expectations showing property to Miss Haversham...where's Estella when you need her (she was the Hot One!)...just my luck.

We head to one wreck in Billerica. What luck! She hears sound from above -- an "otherworldly presence coming down." Turns out it was squirrels in the attic.

We go to a dump in Burlington: sadly she prefers her ghosts to be Kosher -- I AM not MAKING THIS UP! (do ghosts eat?).

At the third home she looks at me and says, "I should have known you'd bring me to a place like this. Looks like something out of the Vampire Diaries! I knew it would come to this."

"Say wha'?", I stammer.

"Well look at you," she posits, "those sunk in cheeks, you are rail thin and youthful yet have the wear of the ages in your face, those eyes; big round, dark that seem to want to fly out of your head..." [note to myself -- oh brother, get me "outta" here!] "...Yes, you have the look of a benevolent vampire about you. NO no no...I want ghosts, not vampires to share my life."

Well folks, no sale, but I have to look at the bright side. I have a first time buyer who's not scared! I sent her to Bank of America for her preapproval -- if that don't scare her, nothing will!

Un-Staging

Everybody knows about staging. Okay, so maybe a few of you good folks do not, so by way of quick explanation, "Staging" is a concept wherein a seller prepares the home for sale by doing cockamamie things that the "home stagers" tell you will sell your home FASTFASTFAST.

Now, folks, you and I know that so nobody is fooled by some bric-a-brac bought at the local Homegoods store, or candles burning in the alcove. We ALL know that in order to sell a home FASTFASTFAST, you have to price it RIGHTRIGHTRIGHT.

I have never been one for staging. It all looks so phony to me. I walk into a "staged" home and I think of Ikea; I smell the scented candles and I want to sneeze at best (at worst, I want to look behind the fridge for the mildew).

No folks, I do not like staging, but that does not mean I am in favor of UN-STAGING...

UN-Staging is a concept I developed. I tell my clients that we must make sure not to unstage and they ask, "What, perchance is that?"

Un-staging is what I call the act of NOT doing those things that will turn off a buyer or, at best, mitigate against a favorable offer. Herewith is a list of UN-Staging items -- things we should not do:

Do not leave the foreclosure notice on the dining room table -- No one is going to up their offer for your home if they know you are in hock up to your hams. Likewise the overdue bills.

Do not show off your pets -- Fido suffers from "bad breath in dog's mouth", sorry to tell you that (you smell just like him after all these years of letting him sit in your lap). No one thinks your dog is cute. As soon as I see a free range dog, I begin to wonder where is the wee-wee stain from those paper training days.

Cats -- forget it, lock 'em up. Every five minutes they are hurling a hair ball; the litter box stinks and the food on the floor is gross.

Hubby -- if the man of the house uses male enhancement, for goodness sakes, hide the bottle; do not leave it on the dresser. We ALL know what goes on in the bedroom, and we may even go to a movie and watch Sasha Gray do it in mind boggling concatenations of styling, but we DO NOT want to think about YOU doing it. While you are at it,...change the bedsheets.

We have all been told that cooking makes a buyer feel all warm and fuzzy, but DO NOT leave the stew on the stove during a showing. The whole recipe is going to boil down to a tarry mass while you are gone and the house will stink like burnt rubber.

I love fireplaces, but do NOT leave 'em going when I show up with a prospective buyer. The only message that can come of this is, "What kind of a moron lives here who would light a fireplace and leave?"

Do not put the dirty diapers into the diaper bin -- they still stink! You just can't smell it anymore. Put the whole bin outside. While you are at it, take down some of Junior's picture. Too many pictures makes the house look too well lived in.

Don't use the basement for storage! If "ya got" clutter, rent a place. Boxes piled high just look like you are hiding something.

Hide the magazine collections. We are all very impressed knowing you read the New Yorker...this week's issue is just fine, but we DON'T need to see them going back to 1965.

Don't leave 3 weeks of leftovers in the fridge. It smells, and at any rate, the fridge may well be part of the offer. Even if it is not, the buyers are going to open it.

Do you really need to leave that box of Trojan's in the medicine cabinet? Do you really need to leave the "Girls Gone Wild" DVDs on the night rest? If you do, at least leave a copy of Citizen Kane there.

DO NOT vacuum TOMORROW! Do it today.

Do not soak the dishes.

Do NOT smoke...EVER. In fact, stop smoking TEN YEARS before you decide to sell. That is how long the nicotine is going to take to dry out of your wall board.

Don't leave fancy chocolates around...good ol' Hershey works just fine. I mean, it might not have an impact on selling the home but, well, what I mean is...I like Hershey...

A Friend in Need Should NOT Be a Friend (IN)Deed

She comes to me and says, "We were together for 5 years. It seemed only natural."

My friend here (ALL my friends are women), was showing me shapshots of the renovated kitchen in the condo she bought "yonder" about 8 years ago. "I mean," she postured, "We did so much work on the place, together, and he seemed to be the perfect guy!"

Now, folks, those of you who know me, can well attest that I work magic on women -- I make 'em disappear! I bring this up to point out that IF I knew what was the perfect man, I would have fashioned myself to be one long ago....So I asked her, "Perfect? How so."

"Well, single, never married, no kids, fortyish, living with his mother..." I lose it there...Any woman who thinks a forty-year-old living with is mother is perfect, well...'nuf said on that!

"So," she continues, "it was only natural. It seemed so normal to do it....And then I find out -- he's been in so many affairs that he should be a caterer! And he comes to me and tells me he's got some girl pregnant and, get this...he wonders if maybe it might be best if WE raise the child as OUR own!" And off she goes to Sobbingland.

"Well throw Old Lochinvar out, for crissake," I say.

"But I can't."

"Listen, honey," I move in for the heart-to-heart, "this is no time to play the conscience, the guy's a bum with a wet wick..."

"No it is not that," she cries, "we were an 'US'; a together, a 'WE'...so last year, I put his name on the deed. I can't throw him out; he owns the place too!" (And now even I'M crying!) "Yes, last year, while he was shakin' and bakin' in Miss GirlScoutCookie's oven, I was off at the lawyer changing the ownership of this place from a 'ME' to a 'WE'. On our 'quote' anniversary, 'unquote', I showed it to him. So Ya see, I can't throw him out, no more than he can throw me out! And he can bring his damn cupcake in with him, I suppose and we can all do a 3-some, or maybe THEY do a 2-some while I burp the baby." And inconsolable tears aplenty pour forth.

Readers, when words fail me (and they DO NOT FAIL very often), I think of cleavage, and here, words failed me... For a few short moments, I thought about how my friend would look in a shred of lingerie from the Frederick's of Hollywood collection (this situation was WELL beyond Victoria's Secret stuttering!).

"Uhhh, yeah," I say, my "unShakesperean moment continuing, "Uhh ya," and I say the only thing I can say, "Call your attorney."

Who knows, maybe it all can be undone. Maybe there is something in deceitful intent...but one thing is for certain -- don't make a friend, indeed, a friend IN DEED.

If it Sounds Too Good to be True, it is Probably a (NEW) Agent Talking

She's showing the listing of mine in Arlington. I'm there to make sure the dog does not bite. She's this cute little kitten of an agent holding out her shiny new business card, and showing me her license (still warm from the presses).

Her customer asks, "Where is the property line", and the sprightly, energetic young lass replies, "Over there...see the fence?" and she prances across the yard all the while talking about the shrubbery and other flotsam of greenery this "yard" will fairly produce under the pressure of a will green thumb.

I, of course, am not thinking green: I am turning red. As her customers plot and plan their futures in a tad of privacy under the canopy of a catalpa tree, I whisk the young agent over to an opposite corner, and as delicately as possible ask her, "Are you friggin' crazy or just stupid?" (OK I did not say "friggin'")

"What?" she asks.

"You," I say, "just told your customer where the property line is? How do you know? How do you know that the fence is not misplaced, or recessed or EVEN meant to be on the property line of THIS property or the neighbor's."

"Well," she says, rather non-plussed, "CAVEAT EMPTOR! -- Buyer beware!" and she jingle jangles off to show them the inside of the home with the new windows and new what nots (note to readers -- is something "NEW" if it is one month old? 1 year old? who is to say what is new?)

Ya see folks, here in my little corner of the world, there is NO SUCH THING AS CAVEAT EMPTOR -- BUYER BEWARE!!!!!!! No such thing, no such thing! We have, instead, 93A -- the Consumer Protection Act (MGL Chapter 93A).

93A protects consumers from, well... being misled and harmed by statements from those who are professionals in their fields. In other words it gives the inexperienced consumer protection from being rough-shod by some hi-falutin' wheeler dealer, right?

Right, but it DOES more: it "imposes responsibility for false statements made in good faith. The broker can obtain no refuge from liability because of the statement being made in good faith on her part" (from Grynowicki v. Silvia, 1994 Mass App 173).

Despite the new agent's best intentions and good faith, she runs afoul of consumer protection laws and risks heavy damages assessed --- and she DOES NOT EVEN KNOW IT!

So what to do? I took her buyers aside, and told them that the fence may or may not be the line. I told them we do not have a survey, and the owners of the home do not have a survey. The only way to be sure is with a survey. In other words I saved her (nicely sculpted at SuperFitness) BUTT!

So remember, buyers do not have to "beware" -- they do not even have to be AWARE! They just have to mention 93A!.

Order of Notice Review 2010

For those folks who do not know what is an "Order of Notice", let us move into the magical land of make believe: let us imagine this scenerio:

Scene 1, Take 1: Owner opens letter on the table. Perplexed by the big words, and stymied by the reference to military personnel, the owner puts down the letter, picks it up, reads it again.
Scene 2, Take 1: Owner divides the big words in the calligraphy on the page and realizes that this letter is notice that their "banker" intends to begin foreclosure proceedings. The letter in hand is serving notice that if the owner is active in the military service of his/her country, he/she should so make written notice to that effect...and so our story goes.

The "OON" is a good indicator on foreclosures. In Belmont, 12 neighbors got the OON in 2010. That is an imporvement of the 17 who got the riot act put on them on 2009. Sad, but a bucking of the trend as the chart below of surrounding towns details:


Waltham in 2010 104; in 2009 73
Lexington in 2010 20; in 2009 16
Arlington in 2010 38; in 2009 13
Medford in 2010 119; in 2009 111
Watertown in 2010 38; in 2009 38

This may well look like good news for Belmont, but silver linings, DO, in fact cover the storms. It may well be that so many of our homes were bought at such infalted prices, that banks DO NOT WANT TO FORECLOSE. Why foreclose on an unsellable property; why pick up ownership and have to pay those taxes? Better to let the defaulting owner dangle in the breeze (or hurricane).

Not too funny, but then, it isn't supposed to be.

An MVP award in Arlington (MA) 2010 Condo Review

A few days ago, we happily reported the triple crown winner for 2010 was Arlington (single family sales). Single family's battery-mate, the condo, went to bat also and put up numbers worthy of Willie Mays or Mickey Mantle (pre-steroid heros).

In 2010, 201 condo docs changed hands; eleven fewer than the number that got got snatched up in 2009. BUT -- the average price long balled up to $396,242 from $350,223 (13%). Days on market was clocked on the speed gun at 59.46 (according1g to MLS), and was was nearly 11 days faster than 2009! And in the all important slugging-percentage-like area of price per square foot, 2010 knocked it out at $285 per, versus 2009's $279.

If there is one weak hole (and there ever is: even Ted Williams had a weak hole -- he batted [his own assessment] a paltry .240 when going after the low inside pitches), that weak hole would be expired listing. In 2009, 57 listings failed to sell. In 2010, 114 owners were "left on base".

As the season swings into high gear we are left to wonder: will they improve in their offensive categories and drive in those 114 owners, or will the season swing somewhere else? I thin the former.

Condo Sales hit a Brick "Wal(tham)" (MA)

the 205 condos sales in 2010 represent a 23% drop in numbers of sales versus 2009. Not good for agents even if one considers the average price rose from the width of a joist from about $312,000 in 2009 to $318,000. Agents may well point out that they were on the beam here with average days on market dropping to 87 from 2009's 90 (big deal!).

Things are not as bright as agents may make it out to be...the average sales price rise is not due to demand, folks, but to the size of the condos. In 2009, comndos sold for an average of $257 a square foot. In 2010, the averge Price per square foot dropped to $243. Added to that, there were 108 owners lweft in the dark when their condos did not sell and went expired in 2010 (a mere 68 expired in 2009).

Which just does to show that maybe bright eyed agents, like the "expired" owners are also in the dark...Better cut a window in that wall and take a look around.

Waltham Keeps on Ticking

I know the "keeps on ticking" refers to the old Timex watch ads, but come on, cut me some slack...it ain't easy being funny when you are trying to make pancakes for a middle schooler's breakfast. The reference refers to Waltham as in Waltham Clock, get it?...ah the heck with it.

At any rate Waltham's finest (agents) chimed out 265 single deals in 2010 up from 2009's 235. And they did it in 71 or so days -- 10 days faster than in 2009. Of course, according to MLS, prices dropped to $406,466 from 2009's $414,232 -- maybe that accounted for the "time change" (get it?).

Of course, all is not going according to the time tables in the "Watch City". 123 listings went expired or were cancelled in 2010. In 2009, 93 listings had the springs busted. That's an awful lot of time running out and an awful lot of "ticked off" sellers.

I cannot say what the new year will bring. Will things wind down? or will we move at "warp speed"? Time will tell.

Watered Down Sales -- 2010 Condo Sales review for Watertown MA

OK, so 179 condos were sold in little Watertown, MA in 2010. Nice, huh? Actually that is 20 fewer than in 2009, but agents have some solace: prices were up a bit. According to MLS, the average price in 2010 was about 338k, up from 331k. Note to agents: don't tap into the kid's college fund yet.

Agents had to work a bit more (work???) in 2010. They had to churn up 121 days to make the average sale. In 2009 they kanoodled the sale in 91 days. Yeesh! that is a whole month -- equal to the average agent's stay at their summer home one the CAPE! Yee gods.

The big bad news is here. 113 condos went unsold and the listings expired. A scantly69 failed to sell in 2009. Add to that the 63 listings currently on market (1/6/11), and you've got yourself quite a dandy (and large) pool of condos for sale.

Time will tell, but statistics say the condo prices will be "diluted" in 2011...and that may give buyers a chance to make a real splash!

Condo "Many-of-Them" (Belmont, MA)

So 84 condos (well mostly 2 family homes cut in half) went onto the chopping block in 2010; average price, a bit under $461k. Big improvements in both areas over 2009 when 66 flats swapped deed holders at an average price just below $420k. Not bad, but agents had to put the nose to the grindstone a lot longer to etch those down payments into stone. It took an average of 161 days (upwards of 6 months) to natch down the deal compared to 106 days for 2009.

And yet, the stock remains plentiful: 58 condos FAILED to sell and the listings went EXPIRED in 2010. In 2009, the number was 53. By point of comparison, in 2010 a mere 34 single fams went expired versus 48 single expires in 2009.

If you did not get in on the condo buying in 2010, do not worry, you have not missed the boat. There's a rather lame joke out and about that goes something like this:

"You know of any condos for sale?"
"Yeah"
"Which one?"
"All of them."

A "Triple Crown" in Arlington

Arlington wins the MVP award for 2010 (as far as agents are concerned, anyway). Buyers and sellers stepped up the plate and cracked out an amazing 277 deals; a 12% increase over 2009. And there were no "cheap shots" here: the heavy lumber was out according to MLS what with average sale price going the distance and coming in at $537,511 (a 5 percent increase in that power catagory)!

Ahhh, but to complete the steller year, in came the speed: average days on market was a good ol' fashioned "Ryan's Express" down the middle: 48.57 days on market -- 3 days faster than 2009.

Sales, Price and Speed. The three big stats. what does all this mean for the 2011"season"? Who knows, but I would not be surpised to see a few more agents driving new "beemers" around Arlington in the next few months.

Watertown all Washed Up?

OK ok ok...home sales in Watertown did not exactly take a bath in 2010, but real estate agents were not exactly showered with riches on the transactions they put together.

According to MLS, 71 single family homes saw former owners throwing in the towel compared to 79 homes in 2009; a 10 percent grading on the downward slippery slope (stop me on the "water" jokes).

It took an average of 66 days for folks to "liquidate" versus 61 days in 2009. The good news is in average sale price: 2010 saw home sales averaging $472,976: up from 2009's $456,293 -- about a 3% gain. That stat sort of helps with the ol' glass half full analogy, does it not?

All this does not mean that we should roll out the barrel and dance the polka in celebration of recovery, but it DOES mean that anyone talking about a dire and dismal future ought to have the old mouth washed out with soap!